12 Years of Hustle to understand the Gravity of my OSCAR PICKS!!

It would take 12 Years of Hustle to understand the Gravity of this year’s OSCAR PREDICTIONS!!

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Here they are, hopefully to help you win your Oscar pools. In giving you my 1st pick, 2nd pick, %’s and brief commentary with maybe a dark horse or upset pick. My normal article would have had much more to say, but sadly, the time did not #FitInMyLife, haha. Some real craziness this year especially in the tightest 3-way Best Picture race I have ever seen. Please comment, debate, share your picks and I’ll share more, telling you why you are right or way wrong. Remember, it’s not about who YOU think should win or was best, but who the academy will vote for. Here goes…

BEST PICTURE:

41           12 Years a Slave

40           Gravity

19           American Hustle

Captain Phillips

Dallas Buyers Club

The Wolf of Wall Street

Nebraska

Philomena

Her

This is the first time I will admit that it’s a complete toss-up between Gravity and 12 Years a Slave, although it’s still possible for American Hustle to sneak through too. There are so many reasons. American Hustle won at the Screen Actors Guild (SAG), 12 Years a Slave won at the Golden Globes (GG) and the BAFTA’s, while Gravity won the Directors Guild Award (DGA). Incredibly, the Producers Guild Award (PGA), which is one of my favourite indicators had a TIE for a first time in history! Both 12 Years a Slave and Gravity were announced as winners. This category also has a unique voting system where 2nd and 3rd place votes counts when there is no majority. So who do you think voters will vote for with their other votes if the top two are not first? Yup, you guessed it, BOTH of them! Gravity has few actors and 12 Years has many actors and actors make up the largest proportion of the academy. Gravity has the sweep factor, but some will say, it will win enough Oscars so we should spread the love around. 12 Years has the emotional impact and epic quality that academy voters love. Finally, everywhere I research is splitting the vote, so no one really knows for sure, but it’s pretty damn exciting. Therefore, my gut says that we will see a rare split between best director and picture and 12 Years a Slave squeaks in. Then again, predicting splits rarely works for me….ah well. Just suck it up and pick one of them.

BEST DIRECTOR:

95           Alfonso Cuaron, “Gravity”

5              Steve McQueen, “12 Years a Slave”

David O. Russell, “American Hustle”

Martin Scorsese, “The Wolf of Wall Street”

Alexander Payne, “Nebraska”

This is one of the few locks for tonight. Alfonso Cuaron has won most pre-cursor awards and people love his mastery of technical and artistic storytelling. (George Lucas could learn a thing or two from him). The only way Steve McQueen could pull off a huge upset is if 12 Years a Slave has hidden momentum only to be revealed tonight.

BEST ACTOR:

70           Matthew McConaughey, “Dallas Buyers Club”

20           Chiwetel Ejiofor, “12 Years a Slave”

10           Leonardo DiCaprio, “The Wolf of Wall Street”

Bruce Dern, “Nebraska”

Christian Bale, “American Hustle”

McConaughey has all the momentum and the key wins in the SAG, GG and Critics choice. This combined with his other great works this year make him the best pick. Chiwetel has a role of a lifetime that cannot be ignored and Leo is adored and loved by academy voters plus he’s been nominated 5 times.

BEST ACTRESS:

85           Cate Blanchett, “Blue Jasmine”

10           Amy Adams, “American Hustle”

5              Judi Dench, “Philomena”

Sandra Bullock, “Gravity”

Meryl Streep, “August: Osage County”

Another solid lock for the evening. Cate has overcome everything, winning every pre-cursor and avoiding any Woody Allen aftermath. Amy Adams could steal because of her 5th nomination and no win and Judi Dench could do the same because of her age and never winning Best Actress before.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

100         Jared Leto, “Dallas Buyers Club”

Michael Fassbender, “12 Years a Slave”

Barkhad Abdi, “Captain Phillips”

Jonah Hill, “The Wolf of Wall Street”

Bradley Cooper, “American Hustle”

This is the 3rd and most secure lock of the entire evening. Jared has won every pre-cursor, was in a transformative role, was in a movie that is getting a lot of love and his personal story is compelling. If you had a million dollars, you can bet on his 1:40 odds and win a nice 25k.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

65           Lupita Nyong’o, “12 Years a Slave”

35           Jennifer Lawrence, “American Hustle”

Sally Hawkins, “Blue Jasmine”

June Squibb, “Nebraska”

Julia Roberts, “August: Osage County”

Some would say this is a close race, but I beg differ. It’s certainly closer than all of the other acting categories by comparison. As much we all love Jennifer Lawrence, including the academy, having her win two years in a row and be only 23 years of age, would be quite an anomaly. Lupita has won many of the important pre-cursors including the most important SAG. Nevertheless, Jennifer cannot be ignored because she beat our Lupita for the BAFTA and she is so darn adorable.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:  

60           “Her”

40           “American Hustle”

“Dallas Buyers Club”

“Blue Jasmine”

“Nebraska”

The movie Her is perfectly suited to win having such an original story having won the GG, BAFTA and all-important Writers Guild Award (WGA). But Oscar loves David Russell and American Hustle had some great momentum building and then slowed down. It seems to be the one that might get shut out of most of the awards, so this is a great spot for an upset.  It’s not enough for me to call it though. Woody Allen, despite his creative talent, is definitely losing favour in Hollywood.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

80           “12 Years a Slave”

20           “Philomena”

“Before Midnight”

“Captain Phillips”

“The Wolf of Wall Street”

The only reason Philomena has a shot is because Harvey Weinstein is a pompous, arrogant dude who has to bulldog his way by influencing voters.  12 Years a Slave is an epic story and should win.

BEST ANIMATED FILM:

90           “Frozen”

10           “The Wind Rises”

“Despicable Me 2”

“Ernest & Celestine”

“The Croods”

All other competitors will be frozen out so just let it go.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: 

50           “The Great Beauty”

40           “The Broken Circle Breakdown”

10           “The Hunt”

“Omar”

“The Missing Picture”

Another very close race between our top two, but The Great Beauty won both the GG and BAFTA.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FILM: 

45           “The Act of Killing”

40           “20 Feet from Stardom”

15           “The Square”

“Cutie & the Boxer”

“Dirty Wars”

Another very tough one to call.  I’m going with The Act of Killing but 20 feet from stardom could easily take this one. I put The Square in because it did win the DGA.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:

85           “Gravity”

10           “Philomena”

5              “Her”

“The Book Thief”

“Saving Mr. Banks”

Another lock for Gravity. Harvey Weinstein can try all he wants, but I hope he doesn’t pull off an upset for Philomena.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG:

85           “Let It Go”, Frozen

10           “Ordinary Love”, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom

5              “Happy”, Despicable Me 2

“The Moon Song”, Her

Some say that Mandela’s death would be a timely reminder and opportunity for an upset, so we can’t ignore that. However, which song above can you sing, right now? Exactly! Whether you are a parent or not, the choice is no contest. So let it go.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:

90           “Gravity”

10           “Inside Llewyn Davis”

“Nebraska”

“Prisoners”

“The Grandmaster”

Another one of the few locks. You cannot watch Gravity without thinking about the cinematography.

BEST FILM EDITING:

55           “Captain Phillips”

45           “Gravity”

“12 Years a Slave”

“American Hustle”

“Dallas Buyers Club”

Very close race too! When in doubt, go with the A.C.E. winner. That would be Captain Phillips and not the front-runner. That said, the beautiful long takes that Gravity is famous will be both a bonus and a detriment to its Oscar chances.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:

55           “The Great Gatsby”

35           “Gravity”

10           “12 Years a Slave”

“Her”

“American Hustle”

Another closer race than it seems. Great Gatsby has fantastic sets and is a front-runner, but Gravity has momentum and sweep factor potential.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN:

45           “American Hustle”

40           “The Great Gatsby”

15           “12 Years a Slave”

“The Grandmaster”

“The Invisible Woman”

Most people are picking Great Gatsby for this one. However, here is my first predicted upset. The momentum of American Hustle plus how incredibly sexy Amy Adams and Jennifer Lawrence looked might be enough to sway voters to get nostalgic about the 70’s. Okay, maybe I’m being swayed. Safe bet is Gatsby, but take a risk on American Hustle and maybe win your Oscar pool.

BEST MAKEUP & HAIR:

100         “Dallas Buyers Club”

“Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa”

“The Lone Ranger

I don’t think anyone wants to allow Jackass or the Lone Ranger to call itself an “Academy Award winning movie.”

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:

99           “Gravity”

1              “The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug”

“Iron Man 3”

“The Lone Ranger”

“Star Trek Into Darkness”

Um…yeah, well the dragon was pretty cool in The Hobbit, so I’m biased. But it’s Gravity all the way.

BEST SOUND EDITING: 

75           “Gravity”

24           “Captain Phillips”

1              “The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug”

“All is Lost”

“Lone Survivor”

Gravity all the way. Captain Phillips has a good chance to upset, but doubtful. I gave The Hobbit a 1% shot because of my personal bias and love for that movie.

BEST SOUND MIXING: 

80           “Gravity”

15           “Inside Llewyn Davis”

5              “Captain Phillips”

“The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug”

“Lone Survivor”

Historically these 2 categories of Sound Editing and Sound Mixing have gone hand-in-hand 95% of the time, except in the last few years. That said, the sound and especially the silence of space make Gravity a much stronger pick in this category.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT:

60           “The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved my Life”

20           “Facing Fear”

15           “Cave Digger”

5              “Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall”

“Karama Has No Walls”

A 109 year old piano playing holocaust survivor? Okay, good choice.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT:

60           “Get a Horse!”

25           “Mr. Hublot”

10           “Room on the Bloom”

5              “Feral!”

“Possessions”

Get a Horse is the big front-runner, but those who don’t like Mickey Mouse may go for Mr. Hublot.  These smaller categories are harder to predict and easier to have upsets. Given how crazy this year is, especially best picture, you may win your pools way down here in these categories.

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT:

40           “The Voorman Problem”

30           “Helium”

25           “Avant Que De Tout Perdre (Just before Losing Everything)”

5              “Aquel No Era Yo (That Wasn’t Me)”

“Pitääkö Mun Kaikki Hoitaa? (Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?)”

Any one of the top 4 could win. But I’m going with the stats, odds and what most people are picking.

Summary: There you have it. So who gets the most Oscar love?

Gravity                                                 6

12 Years a Slave                                3

Dallas Buyers Club                           3

Frozen                                                  2

American Hustle                               1

Captain Phillips                                  1

Her                                                         1

Blue Jasmine                                      1

Biggest losers: Wolf of Wall Street, Nebraska get zero. American Hustle for all it’s glory, momentum and how much I love it and Amy Adams, only gets 1 small Oscar.

So now….who is gonna be BEST DRESSED?!  I say Jared Leto!  Okay Jennifer Lawrence too.

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