Bobby’s Oscar predictions 2013 – A year of upsets, redemption and amour

Here they are, hopefully to help you win your Oscar pools. In giving you my 1st pick, 2nd pick, %’s and brief commentary with maybe a dark horse or upset pick. My normal article had much more to say, but sadly don’t have the time. I will say that this year is highly unpredictable in many categories, which is pretty damn exciting. Please comment, debate, share your picks and I’ll share more, telling you why you are right or way wrong. Remember, it’s not about who YOU think should win or was best, but who the academy will vote for. Here goes…

BEST PICTURE: Argo (60%) or Lincoln (30%) – Lincoln had the most noms and Ben Affleck got snubbed best director and actor. BUT, Argo won at the Screen Actors Guild (SAG), Golden Globes (GG), Directors Guild Award (DGA), Producers Guild Award (PGA) and the BAFTA’s. Clear momentum equals sweet redemption. Argo will be the 1st best picture winner without a best director nomination since Driving Miss Daisy. A good dark horse could be Silver Linings Playbook

BEST ACTOR: Daniel Day-Lewis (100%) – I feel bad for Hugh Jackman, because he had the role of his life and could have one in another year. But then DDL was masterful and is unstoppable. He will be the 1st ever to win 3 best actor Oscars.

BEST ACTRESS: Emmanuelle Riva (41%) or Jennifer Lawrence (40%) – I’m picking the 1st huge upset here. Emmanuell Riva was in Amour, a film that got a lot of love from the Academy. She’s 85 and it’s her birthday on Oscar night. Jennifer won SAG, which means big support, but she wasn’t competing there against Emmanuelle.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Robert Deniro (31%) or Tommy Lee Jones (30%) – Another nail biter and don’t rule out Christoph Waltz. DeNiro gets the edge because his film as well loved, he has been nominated long time and Jones is a no fun curmudgeon. This category is fascinating because every single nominee has won an Oscar before. I feel bad for Leonardo DiCaprio because had he almost got the once-predicted nomination instead of Waltz. Had he done so, millions of teary teenagers who saw Titanic (and who are now moms) would rejoice, because Leo would’ve won for sure.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Anne Hathaway (90%), or Sally Field (10%) – As soon as I saw Hathaway’s performance Les Miz, I told Ananda (my wife in case you didn’t know), “She’s going to win”. Sally Field is only there because she’s never lost when nominated and she’s in the most nominated movie. Hathaway and Jennifer Lawrence are both young beautiful ingénue’s that the Academy loves.

BEST DIRECTOR: Ang Lee (36%) or Stephen Spielberg (35%) – Holy cow how crazy is this? There is no Ben Affleck, so now director is totally up for grabs, even for Dark Horse David Russell. Don’t feel sorry for Spielberg, because what the Academy is really choosing is who DIRECTED best vs. which movie will win best picture. I’m calling on Ang Lee to pull the third big upset of the night.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Amour (40%) or Django Unchained (30%) – Another awesome three-way battle with Zero Dark Thirty. Amour has gotten a ton of love, so again I’m picking another upset versus the previous 2 front runners.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Argo (40%) or Lincoln (35%) – Looks like ménage à trois is the theme for this year’s Oscars, because Silver Linings Playbook has a legitimate shot to win too. Tony Kushner’s screenplay is too powerful to ignore but then so is Argo’s momentum.

BEST ANIMATED FILM: Wreck-It Ralph (55%) or Brave (45%) – I’m noticing how close my percentages are, but seriously most of these categories are pretty damn close. Either way, Disney still wins.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: Amour (99%) – the big question is, do voters think this is enough? I say no, Amour gets more.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FILM: Searching for Sugarman (80%)


BEST ORIGINAL SONG: Skyfall (75%) – Sorry but it’s licensed to kill. Les Miz is a dark horse.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: Life of Pi (80%) – the guy who shot Skyfall has been nominated 10 times, but has never won. This could be a good upset category.

BEST FILM EDITING: Argo (60%) or Zero Dark Thirty (30%) – both done by the same editor!

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: Lincoln (27%) or Les Miserables (25%) or Anna Karenina (20%) – very tough category , this is the only four-way race because Life of Pi could also easily win. I’m giving it to Lincoln because Oscar voters sometimes like to spread the love and so far Lincoln is getting shut out badly.

BEST COSTUMES: Anna Karenina (80%) or Mirror Mirror (20%)

BEST MAKEUP & HAIR: Les Miserables (55%) or The Hobbit (45%)

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: Life of Pi (70%) or The Hobbit (20%) – Wanna dark horse? Try The Avengers!

BEST SOUND EDITING: Life of Pi (60%) or Skyfall (25%) – Zero Dark Thirty is a good call.

BEST SOUND MIXING: Les Miserables (50%) or Skyfall (30%) – note that if Skyfall wins sound editing it has a much higher chance of winning sound mixing. Historically these 2 categories have gone hand-in-hand 95% of the time, except in the last few years.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT: Open Heart (30%) or Innocente (25%) – Mondays at Racine is another good bet.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT: Paperman (40%) or Adam and his Dog (35%) – By now many of you on Facebook have seen this going around. It’s beautiful, but it doesn’t mean it’s gonna win. You’ve been warned.

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT: Curfew (50%) or Death of a Shadow (25%) – could also be the Buzkashi boys

There you have it. Go win your Oscar pools! So who gets the most Oscar love?
Life of Pi – 5 wins
Argo – 3 wins
Amour – 3 wins
Les Miserables – 3 wins
Lincoln – 2 wins
Silver Linings Playbook – 1 win
Anna Karenina – 1 win
Skyfall – 1 win
Wreck it Ralph – 1 win
Biggest losers: Zero Dark Thirty and Beasts of the Southern Wild

So now….who is gonna be BEST DRESSED?! I say Anne Hathaway 🙂Image